Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
